Science! A Review of the Research I did Spring 2015.

Overview of the Observational Research of Helheim Glacier in Greenland

Introduction

Over the course of the semester I have been doing observational research on Helheim Glacier in Greenland. I’ve been working with Catherine Walker and Brittany Schmidt in the department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Institute of Technology. The purpose of this research is to understand the relationship between the crevasse (fractures in ice) patterns, glacier flow, and calving rate (this is the speed that the front of the glacier breaks off). High resolution satellite images, of years between 2001 and 2014, were used to trace the crevasses in the ice electronically for further modeling. This is an informal review of the work I have done this semester of spring 2015. I will discuss my process, results, observations/conclusions, and the future work planned.

Overview of Glaciers

Glaciers are giant rivers of ice that are formed by the accumulation and compaction of snow. Gravity drives it downward like a slow moving liquid. Glaciers form on mountains or near the poles. In Antarctica and Greenland contain 70% of the world’s fresh water supply, and if melted, they would raise the sea level by 70 m. The grounding line is the point where the glacier leaves the land and begins floating on water. The calving front is at the end of the glacier, and this is where giant blocks of ice break off, known as calving. This leads to the glacier losing large amounts of its ice overtime. “The physics of ice sheets” was the source used to gather this information.

Procedure and Apparatus

            My overall process has stayed the same since I began but has been refined. The first three images I did were 2001, 2003, and 2005 gathered from the ASTER imaging instrument, but these had already been done by Catherine. The purpose of these first three images was to see if the process was replicable and to compare our results.

My first impressions

I briefly saw Catherine’s drawings before I began working on my own. However, I did not look at in depth or while I worked on my own. Seeing it, I remembered thinking how time consuming it must have been to create given the level of apparent detail. Therefore, it drove me to constantly question whether or not I was being detailed enough, and I ended up drawing as much detail as I could. My first image turned out more detailed than Catherine’s, but I still wondered if the higher detail may have been the result of unwarranted assumptions that may negatively impact the model. The only way to complete such a tasking project is to make certain assumptions along the way. Otherwise, I’d never had finished. I’ll try to explain these assumptions later. After I completed the first image, we could discuss how and where I was doing it wrong. Except, what I did seemed fine. Catherine processed my image, and the model she made essentially matched what she did. So, I have kept to the same logic for the rest of the images I did.

Beginning work on the first image

For the first image, I thought it would be beneficial to adjust the image brightness, contrast, and resolution in Photoshop. I thought this would make it easier to make out the faint crevasses in the ice, but I found this to be more of a hindrance than of any real help. Parts of the image were dark and difficult to make out, and increasing the resolution size did not improve the actual image quality. All it did was blow up what was already there and increased the file size along with it. The larger file size, in turn, made it the application I was using more prone to lagging.

The application I used was already a little slow to respond. I had decided against using Photoshop on my laptop even though it seemed like the best option. The level of detail required seemed like it would be overly arduous on my computer. I found a program to use on my iPad. This would be more like tracing on a sheet of paper, so it would be quicker and easier. The program was Bluebeam Revu, shown in Figure 1.

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Figure 1. Snapshot of Bluebeam Revu iOS App

The program worked well enough but lagged a lot, and I made more mistakes because of it. Normally, I’d undo it. Then I’d redraw it, but I learned to accept a certain level of inaccuracies because it was tedious to constantly have to undo and redo. It made it difficult, but I tried to trace with as much detail as possible. I zoomed in to more precisely trace the crevasses, and I zoomed out so the image wasn’t to distorted to make out the next crevasse. This means I zoom in and out for each line to make sure it’s precise but still accurate. That app had to reprocess the image each time, only perpetuating the lag. It would register the starting point and the ending point. Rather than registering the curves, sometimes it formed a straight line. I began to try and make smaller lines to overcome this, but in some places, the image lacks the finer curvature details.

After completing the first image, I made a point to find a different app. I found GoodReader for iOS, shown in Figure 2, and it works a lot better. It quickly and smoothly zooms in and out and is relatively easy to operate. I’ve used it for all of the other images. I think it has led to clearer, more detailed, images, so the 2001 image may be less accurate from using the Bluebeam application.

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Figure 2. A snapshot of GoodReader in iOS.

Assumptions in Completing the images

Even with the more efficient app, I kept using the smaller lines most of the time. Figure 3 shows an excerpt from the 2010 image in the center of the glacier near the calving front. Here you can see how several crevasses appear to be continuations of others. I try to look at these as independent lines because there are spots in the image that make it seem like the crevasse stops. The individual lines should still model to represent the same overall contour.

F-3Figure 3. Excerpt from 2010 near the calving front.

The crevasses were interpreted as the darker portions of the image. This assumption may be wrong. The dark may only be the shadow of the shapes, but it should have a negligible effect on distorting the overall shape of a crevasse. In which case, I assumed it to be a relatively accurate representation of the general shape and length of the crevasses. I must admit, I don’t fully understand how to distinguish what is a crevasse. Early on I looked at Google Earth to get a better idea of the glacier structure. Figure 4 is a close up with a scale at 2000 ft at the bottom right of the image.

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Figure 4. A google earth screenshot of the Helheim glacier at around the same resolution as in the ASTER images

This is roughly equivalent to the ASTER image resolutions. I interpret the dark portions as crevasses. However, Google Earth offers a higher resolution than what is seen in the ASTER images. Figure 5 shows the glacier with a scale at 200 ft shown at the bottom right.

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Figure 5. The Helheim glacier at roughly 10 times the resolution of the ASTER images.

 At roughly ten times the resolution of Figure 4, the darker regions look less like a crevasse. It’s more like this is a flatland of dirty snow with giant white mountains protruding through it. I don’t know what to make of it. Nevertheless, Figure 4 seems to demonstrate a clear set of crevasses. Even if what I interpret as crevasses are in fact something else, I think they are related to the crevasses such that they should convey the same overall shape of the crevasse contours.

The crevasses did not always appear as clear as in Figure 4. Along the margins and further up away from the calving front, the glacier appears far less distinct. In these areas, I used a lot of small lines again to try and make out what appeared to be faint shades of crevasses. In these areas, the lines appear noisier with a less distinct pattern. This may be a characteristic of the glacier, or it may be a result of my trying to find a pattern or crevasse where there is none. Even if a pattern does exist, I cannot say with confidence that it was not by bias of expecting a particular pattern that lead to my tendency to create one. I do not fully understand how this model is being tested, but I wonder if there is a way to compare results with and without these areas included to see if there is a significant improvement or loss in model accuracy. I suppose this also leads to the question of whether the added detail I try to include significantly improved the model. Am I better off doing a rougher estimation of the crevasses like Catherine? It could save time, and it may even lead to more accurate, if less precise, results.

 F-7

Figure 7.  Here is a portion of the 2003 Helheim Glacier image. It is taken from the bottom curve of the Glacier without the fracture lines drawn over it.

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Figure 8. Here is a portion of the 2003 Helheim Glacier image. It is taken from the bottom curve of the Glacier and it includes the fracture lines drawn over it.

Consider Figures 7 and 8. These are cropped images of the 2003 image of the Helheim glacier with and without the lines I drew. The outcrop is taken from the lower portion of the glacier where the smaller glacier flows into Helheim. Looking back at Figure 8, I can see some of the lines that I left out. I’ll try to explain this as well as possible. I interpret the slightly darker areas within the white-blue as crevasses. Looking at it with the black lines makes it difficult to gage them against one another. I may have over looked these, but it may also be that I deemed them insignificant compared to the other lines. On some level, once I reached a certain density of lines, I moved on. The center portion, with its larger fractures, had finer details to be drawn, but there is a point where these details take away from the overall model in these areas. I suppose I sought to convey the best level of detail on the highest level discernable. Sometimes, the level was lower with a focus on the finest of details and others it was higher with a focus on the overall features of the glacier.

I don’t mean to contradict myself, but this sort of logic can be difficult to implement. I would often start, stop, and then return later. It would be like looking at Figure 8 after the fact with the more prominent crevasses already drawn, but it is hard to avoid. A lot the time, it’s difficult to go from the center to the fainter margins. Other times, I would be dissatisfied with fainter regions because there would be a lot of blank space, so I’d return to it later with fresh eyes. In doing so, I may be directly overriding the system that I talked about above. I try to keep this in mind whenever I think the most intense areas, like the center, has more to add. Although in the fainter regions, it seems less important because the apparent variations in crevasse intensities are less significant.

As I mentioned before, I interpret the darker areas as crevasses. They seem like impressions in the ice. Sometimes, the lines appear to flow into another creating a large imprint. I interpret these to be like roots branching off from one another. This is may ingrain a certain level of bias. I try to use the shape of the other lines that are more apparent to infer how these fainter, more chaotic, regions become to look like they do.

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Figure 9. Here is an example of how I would draw some of the more obscure features on the Glacier. This image is the same as the one shown in Figure 7.

Figure 9 was created using Figure 7. It’s the same section of the 2003 image of Helheim, but I’ve focused in one a few areas to try and demonstrate what I explained in the last paragraph. I’ve circled three areas to use as an example. Below the image, I show the impression I see in the ice (a) and what fracture I might draw from it (b). The drawing orientation is the same as in the image. In the circle marked 1, you can make out an impression in the ice. 1a shows what impression I see. Notice there is a small divide between the middle arm and the right arm. 1b shows how I might draw this piece. I did this example on my computer which was difficult to trace with, and that middle arm was supposed to connect into one not branch off like that. However, my point is to demonstrate how I infer that there are three branching fractures there despite the fact that the left and middle arms don’t appear to have a divide separating them. In the circle marked 2, there is a similar situation. 2a shows the rough impression I see in the ice, and I then interpret it as two arms branching apart. The same is with number 3. These blotchy areas are not too uncommon, and I it seems like the best way to infer a pattern out of them. I try to use the surrounding features to consider the overall shape of the fracture or fractures. Then I try to consider what pattern would best fit the area and its surrounding. The finer details of these areas are largely subjective, but I think the general shape remains the same. That is why I think this type of assumption is appropriate.

If you compare these examples to Figure 8 you don’t see exactly the same thing. That was a while back, and my thought processes have changed. Although, it is worth nothing that I don’t always see something the same way. I don’t want to overthink I (more than I already do). Sometimes I may see a branch like that in Figure 9 as independent lines that don’t connect. I think it still forms the same general shape.

I think it necessary to explain these assumptions so that they can be considered when the images are modeled. These are all potential sources of error. If there is a better way to approach it I’d like to know, but the process was largely up to me to make. I had to come up with some sort methodology to go by. This seemed reasonable.

Results

Overall

There are clear flow patterns within the ice that are obvious when viewing on a large scale, but upon closer look the crevasses become more sporadic. The more subtle the crevasse the more difficult it was to make out. This may lead to a slightly less accurate model. The most distinct fractures exist in the center of the glacier, and it lessens toward the glacier margins. This may not be directly apparent in the models because there was no way to distinguish depth and overall size when tracing. However, the margins tended exhibit a larger amount of noise; the fractures did not always appear to follow any specific direction. What is clear, along the margins, is a type of sandwiching effect on the crevasses. This was more evident along the inner curve, or northerner, margins. The margins along the outer curve were less noticeable. These were the most difficult to trace because it was difficult to distinguish the crevasses. The outer curve has a smaller flow of ice coming into it which may allow these margins to translate its stress into the smaller flow rather than be concentrated by the margin walls. Where the rock margin returns, the crevasses become more prominent. As it approaches the calving front of the glacier, the ice has the highest amount of crevasses with several crossing into a matrix like shape. Finally, the calving front tends to form into a concave like shape. I have some ideas why these things may happen, but I’m hesitant to state them because I’m not sure I understand the dynamics enough. Still, these stand to tell a lot about the glacier dynamics with the proper analysis.

The next sections will refer to each year. These will list figures that are attached in full resolution. This attachment has them all organized and labeled, but I’ve also linked to each folder of images that I have as I talk about them below.

2001

The 2001 Helheim glacier with lines is in Figure 10, and just the lines are shown in Figure 11. The first thing to notice with this image is the color and brightness. I already mentioned that I adjusted it for the first image. I was very meticulous with this; I included literally every crevasse I thought I could see even those in the smaller glaciers flowing into Helheim. I later realized I didn’t need to do this, so I didn’t pay as much attention to them in the future. Figure 11 doesn’t include these because I had to clean up the occasional line that had been drawn off to the side accidently, so I figured I’d make this image the same as the others. I’m still amazed at how well it turned out. It made it easier for the future images because it showed where it was all going. I think one of the big things here is there are a lot of straight lines (not most but more than desired). As I said earlier this fails to convey the finer details. One thing I notice is that I drew a lot more horizontal crevasses in this image than future images. This may be a result of being slightly less concerned about getting every tiny thing. However, the other years have a calving point that is further up, so this may be something that happens more as it stretches further over the water without. It definitely shows the glacier at its highest amount of snow and ice of the years looked at. Nevertheless, I’ll be paying closer attention to this region in the future to see if I’ve been overlooking it.

2003

Figures 12 and 13 show the 2003 glacier. It clearly has less ice and snow cover than the 2001 image, and the calving front is further up.  I still drew the smaller glacier for this one. It may be a coincidence but there is a chunk of lines that appear slightly denser than other areas. This is towards the middle of the image. It is directly above where the smaller glacier enters and above the portion against the margin where the empty space separating the two flows ends. It may be the interaction of these three different flows that leads to extra stress in this specific region, but why then doesn’t it exist in the 2001 glacier?

2005

            Figures 14 and 15 show the 2005 glacier. There was cloud cover for this image, so the upper portion of the glacier was too difficult to make out. When I realized it was still okay to model was when I realized some of the details weren’t important, like the smaller glacier which I didn’t complete all the way.

2007 – August

Figures 16 and 17 show the 2007 glacier. This was the first image from the Earth Explorer. I found 2013 and later following the instructions that Catherine gave me. That left 2006-2012, so I tried other sources in Earth Explorer. I found 2007 and 2010. They both read the same resolution, but they ended up being lower than described. 2007 was the worst. The lines for this image are far less dense than the other images. It should still convey the same picture, but with less detail. There wasn’t an obvious change in the calving front for the glacier between 2005 and 2007.

2010 –  June

Figure 18 shows the 2010 glacier. I haven’t completed it yet, but I’ve included the image as is. It was lower resolution than 2001, 2003, and 2005, but much more than 2007. I don’t think this one will be nearly as bad.

Future

Five images have been completed, and the next set to be done are 2006, 2012, 2013, 2014, and maybe 2004. These are the other ASTER images. Follow the hyperlinks to see these images. There is also a 2008 image, but it has too much cloud cover. I have another 2010 as well, but it doesn’t look any better than the one I already did. In fact, all of these images look slightly smaller than the original three (about the same resolution as 2010 shown in Figure 18).  I think these will be as doable as the 2010 image. My biggest concern is that the grey distorts worst when zoomed in than the past images. I didn’t find anything better on Earth Explorer, and I’ll have to deal with what I have.

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Life After Graduation

Preface

Everyone loves the feeling of finally being able to graduate—to finish what they’ve worked so hard to achieve. We like to pretend this is when things get easier, but it’s not. Life goes on.  That means making difficult decisions and preparing for the future. I decided to write this to summarize my plans to anyone who’s interested or curious about what comes next for me and how I got to this point in my life.

I summarize it at the end in case you aren’t interested in the details.

 

My First Year at Tech

I transferred in to Georgia Tech in August of 2012. Coming in, the information I had estimated the funds I need to be roughly $20k or so. That was way out of my price range. That was way more than what federal student loans would cover, so I managed to acquire a private loan from Sallie Mae. I lived on campus the first year. It wasn’t cheap. After my first year, I realized I didn’t need as much as I thought. The tuition and other costs added up to $20k, but the tuition itself wasn’t nearly as much. In fact, federal loans were enough to cover it. All I had to do was find the money for living expenses.

My Second Year at Tech

The first step was housing. Rent and utilities was about $850 a month. I moved off campus and saved about $325. Of course, I can’t save what I don’t have. That’s when I decided to do a Co-op. It wasn’t specifically for the money. That was part of it, but I also thought I’d value from the experience. I think I have. It turned 2 years into three, but I managed to avoid Sallie Mae Loans. For a time, I seriously thought this was my future(1). I became stagnant and was ready to settle.

My Third Year at Tech (Now)

That would be the easy thing—to finish school, and begin making a life. Well, it would be easy in the short term until I realize this isn’t what I want to do. If you know me, you know I love science. I love learning about it and talking about it. It really got me thinking seriously about what I want to do. I began college intending to be an Aerospace Engineer (AE). I loved math, science, and space; it was perfect for me. Unfortunately, job prospects aren’t great in that field, but it’s so closely related to mechanical engineering (ME) that I should do ME first then I could continue on to AE for grad school.

Except, as time progressed, classes got further from the science and deeper into the engineering. It was bland, and I really lost interest. I had gotten to the point where I realized I had no interested in higher education in engineering. Overtime, my hopes of working in the space field had just sort of faded away. It’s the sort of thing where the further away from it you get the harder it becomes to do. Then in September of 2014 I had the opportunity to see a number of seminars, or talks, on various subjects in space and planetary science.

It reinvigorated me. I knew if I really wanted to do it I had to at least try. I had to make an active decision to pursue this in some way, so I spoke to one of the speakers, a scientist from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). He directed me to a professor in the Earth and Atmospheric Science (EAS) department here at Tech. And I went for it.

I sent her an email. No reply. But, I had enough to keep me pushing forward. I contacted one of the advisors in EAS to discuss my interests and opportunities. I looked around at a number of Graduate programs at different schools before talking to her. I had come to the realization that I just wasn’t prepared for it. Half the schools with planetary science expect a background in physics that I just don’t have. I had no research experience(1.5). My GPA (at Tech) was a 2.81 (as a result of my lack of interest my grades had begun to fall(2)). I did not feel confident in my chances. I planned to go for a second bachelor’s degree: rebuild my GPA, create connections in EAS for recommendations, and get some research experience. I had a clear plan to get into grad school.

I kept to this plan until December or so when I realized I made a mistake. I didn’t even try to apply. Some say you only fail if you don’t try, and I guess that mumbo jumbo is true. Except, it sure as hell doesn’t feel like it. I received my rejection email today from the department. Now, I knew it was coming. Even given my subpar qualifications, I realized the planetary science group didn’t have the funding for anyone.  I only applied to Tech, and that was mostly because of the late minute change of heart. It was hard as hell to get everything I needed for the application. Like in the other areas, I just wasn’t prepared. That won’t happen next year.

After Graduating from Tech (Future)

As much as I would have liked to begin my graduate career next year, it is not going to happen, at least not officially(3). This semester I began doing research(4). I’ll continue doing that full time over the summer and part time in the fall. I’m already registered for a mix of EAS and physics courses in the fall. I am going to try and get the second bachelors by the end of next year, but it’s not that easy. My focus will be on graduate school, so that means getting the most out of my classes the research I’m doing without overwhelming myself with unnecessary courses for a degree I don’t even really need(5).
I’ll co-op part time, as my schedule allows, if my employer allows me to(6). However, it isn’t a priority. Research over the summer will be for pay (not great but better than none). This next year will still require some Sallie Mae though, but when I apply to grad school, I’ll be applying to the PhD program for at most places (as opposed to the masters program) because planetary science tends to be a PhD level field. This means, I should be funded once I get there(7). Then it’s all up hill from there.

I have a plan, and I’m fairly confident in that plan. However, things fall apart, and if this doesn’t work out… Well, those who can’t do, teach(8,9).

­Summary

I applied to the graduate program in the earth and atmospheric program here at Tech. I didn’t get in. I have to wait a year to reapply to grad school. In the meantime, I’m working towards a second bachelors in the same program here at Tech. I’m still graduating this May though with my first bachelors in mechanical engineering.

Notes

1I really like McKenney’s. I enjoy the atmosphere and the people I work with. I don’t want to make it sound like it has anything to do with them. If I were working in this field, I’d want it to be with them.

1.5Advanced science programs are research based. That’s what it’s all about. You need to show them you are capable of performing research.

2Maybe I’m incompetent, but I had begun to do worse in courses that were supposed to be easier. That is, easier than some of the courses that I had actually done rather well in. This also doesn’t include classes I took before transferring to Tech. This was all the core classes AKA the easy classes.

3Everything I am doing is to work my way into grad school, so in that sense, I am starting my grad school career. I don’t like having to repeat the undergrad process, but as bad as it is, I’m luck to still be so young.

4I’m working with Dr. Britney Schmidt. I’m really enjoying what I’m doing and with working with Professor Schmidt. Soon, we’ll begin our first paper. I look forward to that because having a paper published with my name out will look great, and because I’m interested in seeing the process take place. I’m studying fracture propagation in glaciers (specifically Helheim) , and later we’ll do a similar analysis of the Europa icy surface. There is so much more I could say about this, and I will with time.

5Some courses are more relevant to me than others. I need to focus on these rather than trying to juggle other courses that are less relevant. Plus, it’s important that my grades in the fall good to show that I am capable and serious about doing this.

6Co-ops work where you work full time for a semester then go to school for a semester before you return t to work again. You do this until you’ve worked at least 3 full time terms. You can work more if you like, but I have, and will only do, 3. I have explained my situation to my boss, and he has, up to now, allowed me to continue working part time. I think he’ll let me keep going, but I haven’t had a chance to talk about it first.

7PhD students are funded usually with a fixed stipend  ( a year sum, not very high); master students aren’t. Most programs let you enroll straight to the PhD program, and you can even get the masters along the way. Some require you to do the masters first. In which case, I’d have to find funding (loans) for that period of time.

8If I’m wrong, and grad school isn’t for me, I’ll reconsider what I’m doing, but then I think I’d try education. It allow me to stay within the science and to continue communicating it. That’s a “what if” sort of thing though.

9I’m updating this a few days later because I really should add that this is just a joke. I love my teachers. I’ve been so lucky to have had so many amazing teachers in and before college. Thank you to all of you, and I in no way mean to minimize the amount of passion and effort it takes to be a teacher. Thanks!

The Magical Sensation that’s Gripped the Nation

Rays of light pierce the dark and sinister clouds that fly overhead, but light has yet to defeat all the shadows of the night. Everything is consumed by darkness, and formidable dangers lie in wait. Fierce waves crush one another as they work as one to reflect the structure that now lies in shambles. Hogwarts, as ubiquitous as the boy it houses, lies in ruin and is on its way to being little more than ash. Fear grips at my insides threatening to rip them to shreds.  The image says it all. The world-wide phenomenon that has managed to ensnare millions of fans is now coming to an end, and the fans are anxious to witness its grand finale. As I sit cross legged outside the theater, I am surrounded by fans screaming in unbearable anticipation for the upcoming movie that is now only hours away. There are movie props all around us, and the fans are slaving over the small indulgences, drinking in everything they have to offer. However, in all of their admiration of the giant posters, no one stops to think what messages might be hidden behind the mysterious exteriors. They are fans of all ages. Most of the fans are young adults, but there are people old enough to be my parents and others who are not even in their teens. Each fan has his or her own story. I first met J.K. Rowling’s magical world when I was eleven. I have grown alongside Harry, Ron, and Hermione, and as their journey comes to an end so does a decade of my life.

However, the story isn’t over yet. My attention leaves the horde of people around me and returns to the poster that so entices me. Though fraught with darkness, there is a bright patch of sky where the sun has begun to rise that catches my eye, but a dark shape blocks my full view. It is the focal point of the entire image, and it stirs a mixture of emotions inside me. It is the center of the magical world, so the depiction of Hogwarts burning to a crisp fills me with shock. Even though I have read the books, I was not prepared for this. It is far worse than I had ever imagined. Below the dying building lies its reflection as if it has to watch itself as it burns, knowing it is happening, but unable to do anything to stop the destruction. I wonder what caused the flames or if someone will ever bring order to the chaos. I look closer. I question whether there really are two figures within the flames about to battle, for I am convinced that they are there. It is the final showdown that everyone is anticipating. My initial shock and fear turn to uncontrollable longing to witness the duel play out. Will good triumph over evil, or will the dark wizard forever rule the world? The battle will decide it all. I am lost within the story, yet I force myself to concentrate more on the poster and the task at hand. I remove the magnifying glass from my mind’s eye, and I allow my gaze to focus on something far less discrete.

At the center of the poster lies the only text aside from a short phrase at the top of the page. The short phrase can wait. The center reads “Hp7” in the signature Harry Potter Font. The abbreviation does two things. It shows how large the Harry Potter franchise has become, and the producers realize this and use it to their advantage. The title makes a statement so bold that even people not in the target audience will be drawn to it. In addition to flaunting its world-wide reputation, the abbreviation limits the number of distractions from the overall illustration. The overwhelming image completes its message with the phrase at the top of the page. In contrast to the first film, which declared “Let the magic begin!” on its poster, this film proclaims “It all ends here.” Fear crawls up my spine and I’m covered in goose bumps. The phrase completes the message that the burning school began, for this is the beginning of the end.

All hope for triumph dies away, and I am left with fear. However, the glint of the sun rise still holds a bit of hope, and I grasp at it even if only to deceive myself that all is not lost. In the first film it is night in the poster, and we entered into a world blind to the evils that threaten us. Yet this light signals hope and the start of a new era. It is time for the long and cold night to end, so that we may live in peace.

We are lost in darkness, and the light is our guide to whatever lies ahead. The end is coming and there will be a new beginning, but it could be for good or evil. The image does a brilliant job at catching the attention of fans, but those who lack interest in the series will show little interest in the poster. Only a fan can catch all of the important factors within the illustration. The poster works to rejuvenate the interest for those whose attention has waned overtime, and it does so masterfully.

Written September 8, 2010 with slight edits on March 27, 2015 by Joshua Hedgepeth

Conversations with a Climate Change Denier

I hope he doesn’t read this. The first thing he told me was how much he hated the phrase Climate Change Denier, but it’s hard not think of him as one. He isn’t stupid. He’s an engineering grad student, and that’s not for the weak minded. He seems reasonable. He understands the fact of evolution, the age of the earth, and other things that many climate change deniers tend deny. Except, we’ve only just begun to delve into this beyond talking face to face. We’ve done some email correspondence, and I’ve sent my first round of rebuttals. If he ever gets the time we’ll see how he responds to the facts.

That is one thing that bothers me. If he, by chance, ends up accepting climate change is real does that prove he wasn’t a denier? Is mere ignorance justification? I can’t help but think not. Whether he’s denying the facts or has yet to be presented with them, he’s chosen to make a conscious decision to deny that it’s real. I don’t blame him because he is only human, and it’s likely its motivated by political or ideological thinking. There is no shame in admitting you’re wrong, so denier or not, if he’s willing to accept the facts then that is really all that matters. But will he? Only time will tell.

In the mean time, I want to share our conversation. I think it can be at least a little informational, but I’d love feedback if anyone is willing and able to do so. Because this is a learning process for myself too. I may get things wrong, or I may just do a poor job of defending it. After all, I’m not a scientist. However, I understand the consensus among scientists, and I am capable of at least a superficial understanding of the evidence.

I considered reformatting and reorganizing the email and response so it would flow better, but I’ve spent enough time on this as it is. I’ll show you what he wrote, and my responses will be italicized. Obviously you don’t have to read it all, but I appreciate you reading this far!

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Hey Josh,

Sorry for the late and (unfortunately) under-researched response. This is a really fascinating subject, and I have learned a lot in a short period of time. I can’t dedicate as much time to this as I would like, but here is a starting point:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/26/co2-ice-cores-vs-plant-stomata/

You will probably be quickly repulsed by the rhetoric on this site, but try to look at the data.

This has taken me while to review and understand. The writers point seems clear though: the ice cap data and the planta stomata do not match. I found it difficult to understand, and I may be misunderstanding it. If so, try to explain it for me because just the link isn’t going to do. But this is what I got out of it: The stomata are a much more granular than the ice caps. It can offer snapshots that are closer in time while the ice caps are a much broader look that gives an overall average but that do not represent the short term variability. But it’s the overall view that we care about. The differences may arise from that variability.

Now, take that with a grain of salt, because I had a hard time understanding what they were getting at and at understanding other sources on the net. What I really took away from it though was that essentially it looked like a bad comparison (like apples to oranges). There are other sources of evidence to verify their accuracy. We have atmospheric data spanning back 50 years from infared recordings. Since the 19th century we’ve had chemical analysis of the atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and both of these match the ice cores. And there are other ways to calibrate the “paleoclimate thermometer” that the ice represents. They’ve compared independent measurements (figure 3 of paleo link). It can also be used to understand the atmosphere’s composition overall which in turn is testable in other ways.

I tried to correlate CO2 and temperature, but I’m having a lot of trouble finding accurate measurements for either. It seems like we only have about 100 years of temperature data and 50 years of CO2 to compare. Even so, it is difficult to access the accuracy of the data, and a strong trend doesn’t seem to appear (to my eye). Granted, I didn’t spend enough time trying to make an “apples-to-apples” comparison. I simply won’t have the time to do this matter justice (aka get a Ph.D. in climate science), which is why I try to keep an open mind. Here are my main concerns (and they are somewhat deep-seated):

1) Not enough historic data that is accurate.

We can study the effects of CO2 on temperature and infer their relationship. We also have a great deal of CO2 data. The deeper in the ice you go the further back in time you travel. Using these samples we’ve been able to track the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere back hundreds of thousands of years. What is more, we can study how much CO2 we are releasing, and we can make projections based on the current state of things and on what will occur if the current rates of pollution continue.

Also, climate is long term, but 100+ years of data tells us a lot still. Even so, there are other ways, like the ice caps, to analysis the temperature further back.
2) Failure of the models to predict periods of pause in warming while at the same time claiming that the models are more accurate (http://thefederalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Climate-Model-Comparison.png)

Okay, we may have talked about this already, but the main issue with this claim is that they are essentially saying these models are failing to do something that they never were even created to do. It’s akin to saying if evolution is real, then how did life begin? It’s a non sequitur as evolution doesn’t claim to know how life started. Similarly, climate models don’t make year to year predictions. That sort of short time span is a look at the weather. The climate is much broader. We are talking two to three decades worth of averaged data. That’s what these models are attempting to do. And it’s worth noting that when using the initial conditions present in the past, they are able to accurately predict what has occurred since then.

I have other issues with this graph. One, there is no information given on how it was gathered or where it came from. I found the article it was posted in—I even contacted the author of it but didn’t get a reply (surprise surprise)—there was nothing providing a source. So, in that sense, it’s circumspect. We are unable to judge their methods nor the data. For all we know it could be completely false (at worse) or cherry-picked and misrepresentative of the whole.
3) Money (certainly goes both ways and I am skeptical of both)

This isn’t unique to Climate Change. Funding exists for all sects of science. I saw a video a month or so ago from a creationist who compared fossils to the crumbled up remains of sheet-rock to the fossils used in anthropology. She showed how unorganized and chaotic the crumbled remains were but how, if you try hard enough, you can find a pattern. But why would they do that? Where is the motivation? Obviously, they want the funding. The funding for their research biases them and leads them to infer things that just aren’t true. Now, you and I both know that’s bullshit. Or I assume you do; let me know if you don’t.

If you’re going to judge climate change based off of this you have to do it for every other discipline. If not, then you have to clearly define the characteristics that make it different. The process of scientific investigation and discovery is not perfect, but it is the best we have. And it’s been proven to work time and time again.
4) A desire to “do-good” before we know what we actually need to do. Those claiming to have the answer (e.g. Al Gore) scare me the most.
I want to touch on a few things here. First off, there was the question, earlier in our conversation, of whether or not anything could be done even if we found out it could. I still stand by the fact that there is. We can work to limit our output and begin to forgo our reliance on fossil fuels. Even supposing our measures did not work as examples and motivations to other countries it still does not prevent us from slowing down the process. It is also absurd to think that just because we can’t solve a problem at all there is no point in even trying.

But all of this is irrelevant in the question of whether anthropogenic climate change is real. It’s another side step. It’s as if, because it would feel that much worse if it were true, that somehow effects how real the problem is.

This knowledge is clear. You can continue to move that line a little bit further every time, but it doesn’t change the fact that there is a clear consensus among scientists and among scientific societies and organizations. We can quibble about the details later, but the first step is acknowledging that the problem is real. Then we can begin discussion on how best to tackle the issue.
I am in no way arrogant enough to think I understand the situation. I’ll argue that 99% of us don’t have a firm grasp on it. What is a great thing is for us to have this discussion, learn something, and try to enrich others. I can admit when I’m wrong, and will do so when I see enough evidence to convince me. However, at the present, I remain skeptical of the climate machine. My last point of clarification- I believe that the climate is changing, recently the trend has been warming, but I’m not ready to say that this is entirely caused by humans. Certainly we have an effect, but the real key is to try and quantify this.

To conclude, I must say the most persuasive piece of evidence for me is the consensus, and that isn’t even new. All that’s happened with it is that through the years it has become more and more extreme. It represents the view of the community at large—not just one person or group. It represents the overwhelming view of independent scientists and organizations.

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My first blog post: The story of my life

Well, I suppose this will be my first blog post; I’m probably doing it wrong. I don’t really know what to write about so I’m going to open up with a post about me and my life up to now.

I was born in Georgia on October 18, 1990. I grew up in Winder, Georgia, and I lived in the same house until May 2012. That was when I moved to Atlanta to begin school at Georgia Institute of Technology, but lets take a few steps back.

I have two sisters. One is 16 months older than me and the other one is 6 years younger. I went to County Line Elementary School until third grade when there was some sort of change in districts that resorted in me moving to Bramlett Elementary. It was a fun few years. That was until I failed 5th grade due to my less than acceptable work in history. That was a bit of a downer. I repeated the 5th grade, and it put me a year behind. The nice part was I knew a lot of the material going into 5th grade again despite the fact that I failed, so I did rather well especially in math. It also made it easier to transition into the next stage in my life.

After successfully completing 5th grade, I moved on to middle school. Except, that was the point in my life where I left public schools and entered private schooling at Hope Christian Academy (HCA). I can’t say that was the best thing ever. At the time, I loved it, but it was indoctrination at its best. It was a fundamentalist school–which entailed creationism (ie evolution denial and a young earth belief). It was supposed to help us (my sisters and I) learn better, but I don’t think it did. I wasn’t your traditional student, and their solution to that was moving me to, for lack of a better phrase, the special ed section. I fell way behind (but never failed). I was there 3 years, and I only left because we couldn’t afford it anymore. I hated leaving at the time (because the indoctrination worked so well). In retrospect, I’m so thankful I didn’t complete my schooling there. There is a lot more I’d like to say on the subject, but I’ll save it for another post.

So I moved on from HCA to Winder Barrow High School (WBHS). I entered in behind, but by the time I graduated in 2010 (at the ripe old age of 19), I had caught back up. Not only that, I’d made my way into honors and AP classes. Thus proving HCA was wrong. Granted, freshman year was a bit of an adjustment period, but I proved myself no different than any other student.

While at WBHS, I became very active in clubs, particularly DECA (the marketing club). I was also an officer in several other clubs, but DECA played a huge role in my high school career. I was an officer for 2 years and an active club member for 3. DECA taught me a level of professionalism that has been extremely helpful through the years. It also helped me learn how to branch out and connect with other people. Most importantly, I learned how much I love being active in clubs and group activities.

Obviously, that couldn’t last. As great as it was, I had to move on. And so I did. I had to decide what I wanted to do with my life. I knew I liked space, science, and math, so aerospace engineering seemed to be the most feasible option. I applied to Ga Tech and was rejected.My test scores (aside from math) weren’t anything special, and my GPA, while not bad, wasn’t the best. I was devastated. Although, I didn’t give up. That was when I applied and went to Gainesville State College (GSC), now the University of North Georgia.

I was disappointed at first, but I came to love GSC. It was the perfect way to transition from high school to college. Not to mention, it was way cheaper. It was around the start of college that I began to forsake any religious belief I had. High school had at least knocked the fundamentalism out of me. My first year at GSC was a bit of a transition, so I wasn’t very active in anything outside classes. Although, my first semester I took Calculus 1 (for the second time at the behest of my high school Calc teacher). As it was my second time taking it, I was already a master at it, and I did awesome. Because of that, my teacher loved me. It just so happened that she was the adviser for the math club, and she got me to check it out.

Before long, I was a club office once again. Naturally, that wasn’t enough. I soon became active in the Chemistry club (in that I attended the meetings). I later became the treasurer. Not long after that I became an office in the Engineering Club and the Physics Club. I have to say the latter two were my favorite clubs. It was around this time that I decided to change from Aerospace to Mechanical (at least for my bachelors) since they are so similar and mechanical engineering had better job prospects.

After 2 years, with all the core classes out of the way, it wasn’t too hard to transfer into Ga Tech. Once again, I didn’t do much with clubs. I had made a few visits to Campus Freethinkers meetings (the secular student alliance club at Tech). It wasn’t until last year (2013-2014) that I began going regularly. To be honest, it wasn’t really the meetings themselves that got me going. After the meetings, a few of people went to a local restaurant to play geek trivia. I loved it. Trivia doesn’t happen anymore, but it lasted long enough for me to become more active and eventually an officer of the club. We do other fun things to make up for it being gone.

But once again, I’m getting ahead of myself. In May of 2013 I began co-oping at McKenney’s Inc, an HVAC company. This has been an amazing experience. I’m really happy I’ve had the opportunity to do this. HVAC is a big step from aerospace, my original goal, but by this point I had nearly given up anything to do with space because I didn’t see myself being able to stand more engineering schooling. Plus, I liked McKenney’s. It is a great place to work. However, I just don’t think it’s what I want to do. I’m not passionate about it. I finished my third and last semester there in Fall of 2014. I am happy to say that they are letting me continue to work part time, but that’s with the understanding that I think I want to try something different.

I love science, and I love space. Hence my initial attraction to Aerospace. But I think I may of been focusing on the wrong side of space. I’ve decided to pursue a career in planetary science. I’ve applied to the grad program in the school of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences here at Tech and am awaiting a response. It’s a big change, but as time continues to progress, I’m becoming more and more confident that this is what I want to do.

That’s it. That’s the story of my life.

In the future, I am hoping to use this blog a way to delve deeper into the types of topics I tend to post about on Facebook. Although, I’ll probably do more like this post, talking more about specific areas in my life. I guess we will see how it works out. I think this could be a lot of fun. I just hope I don’t give up on it.